From streets to alleys, buses to bars, everyone turned into political dissector in bid to sieve Saturday statements by the Cord honcho Raila Odinga that he may quit ODM leadership for the younger generation. Voices have sprung— both for and against.
But still missing in this sentimentalised discourse is the real issue which is eluding even the party hawks either by default or design. I’ve always maintained that like Greece at the height of global recession, ODM remains a patient taken to a sick doctor—wrong diagnosis, wrong prescriptions. This is why: The party’s malady is not generational transition at this juncture, but a Raila with the charm, charisma, organisational ability and networks to replace him in the hearts and minds of the party constituency.
Kenyans are in ODM not because of its ideals but the arresting magnetism of Raila’s persona and his rich political background, a political colossus. Unless this happens, the Orange party will follow the path of Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) in Uganda which lost shine when Dr Kiiza Besigye opted to retire — is it change tact and bounce back with his many bruising ‘Walk to Work’ protests that nearly cost him his life?
Either way Raila’s age or the three presidency stabs should not be a factor, the party needs to learn from Senegal where President Abdoulahi Wade started running for presidency in 1978 but eventually won it in 2000—22 years later under the same Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS) he led since its founding in 1974.
In the United States, President Abraham Lincoln’s political journey became the most interesting definition of perseverance, a case study any keen politician should review. So why would the party apply the self-defeatist strategy Robert Greene described in his book 33 strategies of war as the one-upmanship strategy by picking a rope and hanging itself especially now that its fortunes are nosediving thanks to being out of government and lack of carrot to dangle around?
The Orange party’s number one problem is its skewed nominations that bear no ounce of democracy and reforms it propagates. It has constantly ignored benchmarks captured by Article 81(e) of the Constitution— holding free, fair and accountable nominations through the secret ballot and without intimidation.
This fact lone places the party at cross heirs of public discontent. While they tar IEBC for its feckless handling of elections, the party fairs worse in its primaries. Nauseating is its salient penchant for direct nomination, an exercise that has cost the party many seats it was even preordained to win including recent one in Nyaribari Chache in Kisii county.
Then there is disorganisation, which is becoming its natural proclivity. This is imported by the fact that nobody listens, all pretend to be experts of anything and everything. This means the party needs to borrow a few lessons from the father of learning organisations, Peter Senge, who aptly notes that “in learning the journey is the reward, and not the destination”.
This is one of the many reasons why most successful companies are always learning back-to-back to improve their services to have a grip on clients. So are hubris, chancing, obscurantism and miasma of over confidence— same malady that made Napoleon lose out the Moscow military misadventure in 1812.
Another fault line in the ODM is failing to map itself on the socio-political zeitgeist to trap the generation “swag” whose main issues are of bread and butter and not the trite of reforms it has been singing since its inception. There is also dearth of performance by its elected leaders especially governors, which is blunting the ODM promise—further making the difference between them and Jubilee like that of six and half a dozen.
So when the former Premier says “the youth in South Africa were the ones who helped the ruling party Africa National Congress (ANC) to power”, he missed it because of generalisation fallacy. ANC is a very organised coalition of parties with a very vibrant, robust youth and women leagues, Communist Party and Confederation of South Africa Trade Unions (Cosatu).
Its strength rests in its organisational acumen and mobilisation ability. This, too, is the strength of Chama Cha Mapinduzi in Tanzania. But in ODM disorganisation is the order of the day— everyone is a speaker who issues misstates on behalf of the party. Finally, the party should stop thinking that by merely shouting wolf at the scarecrow of incumbency; the public will automatically embrace them. No. In fact Kenyans will judge them more harshly. - By Onyango Ochieng
The writer is a political consultant Onyango@e-seme.com
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